Stabilization Wedges Game Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words - 2

Stabilization Wedges Game - Assignment Example The predicted impacts may also include the loss of the West Atlantic Ice expanse and the possibility of the unbounded increase in the incidence of category-five hurricanes. The effect of injecting carbon dioxide and other gases into the earth’s atmosphere – results in changes in the climate. This takes place, through the effect of sunlight passed onto the earth’s atmosphere, which results to the warming of the planet – as these gases hinder the transmission of the accumulated heat into outer space. This phenomenon is called the greenhouse effect, which results, most times, from the burning of fossil fuels – which are mainly composed of carbon and hydrogen. As a result, the consequence is the injection of more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. As the situation is, the Earth’s atmosphere contains an approximate amount of 800 billion tons of Carbon in the form of Carbon dioxide. From the burning of fossil fuels, the carbon dioxide produced inj ects an extra 7 billion tons of Carbon into the universe every year. The accumulated carbon dioxide is removed from the universe through two main ways, these including that taken up by growing forests and that which is dissolved into the surface of the ocean. Unfortunately, these two channels are only, able to remove half the Carbon emitted into the atmosphere leaving the other half accumulating at an approximated rate of 4 billion tons every year. This, typically, means that the accumulated amount of carbon in the universe is increasing year after year (Socolow, Stephen & Jeffery 10). The injection of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere started at the onset of the industrial revolution. This can be proved from the figures – indicating that before the onset of the industrial revolution, the atmosphere contained approximately, 600 billion tons of carbon, which are 200 billion tons less than the presently accumulated amount.  Ã‚  

Explain the different reasons why an individual might be tempted to Essay

Explain the different reasons why an individual might be tempted to join a roscas - Essay Example The idea behind making everyone contribute is to make sure that the amount of money in the pool remains constant. Once every member has contributed a certain sum of money, then the pot which is generated out of this contribution is given to one of the members of the community as his savings for a definite period. Average membership among adults ranges between 50 and 95 percent in the Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Gambia, and villages of Liberia, Ivory Coast, Togo, and Nigeria. Although roscas do exist in areas where they are formal financial institutions, there is no denying that they still are the most important form of savings and credit institutions in the rural areas. It is a cycle which repeats itself after every round of distribution of money. So when one member gets the pot, he then has to wait for all the other members to get their share of the pot before his turn comes. This allows for stability and continuity for the community and has a uniform system of savings for the poor people. It is the most common form of informal financial institution in the world. ... â€Å"Rosca members are mostly poor individuals who have little access to formal savings and credit markets because of high transaction costs and incomplete markets. In the literature, roscas are usually regarded as a means for poor people to save money to make an indivisible expense.†(Anderson) Let us now go further into the essay and understand why people are taking up to roscas as a primary means to save money. There are three reasons which shall be looked at the paper, which are as follows: 1. Lack of Self Control 2. Lack of Alternate Commitment Saving Strategies 3. Women’s Role in the Family The first reason talks about the lack of self-control within the community for the rural people. The second reason talks about the lack of other alternatives in such villages which are either too expensive or out of reach for people to have their own savings, and therefore the people indulge in an informal means of savings within their established community. The third reason lo oks at the role of the woman in the family and explains that since they are running the house it is important for them to have a means to save, as their husbands have been notorious with their expenditure and therefore it is required that women save up to generate income in the family. (Roscas as a source of housing finance for the urban poor) Lack of Self Control: â€Å"in the absence of alternative commitment savings strategies, sophisticated people experiencing self-control problems turn to roscas since they would inde?nitely renegotiate with themselves if attempting to save money on their own† Gugerty (2007) One of the most primary reasons regarding the involvement of roscas for the people in the village community is the lack

History Germany Essay Essay Example for Free

History Germany Essay Essay How far do you agree that the new Weimar Republic was seriously threatened by political extremists in the years 1919-24? (30 marks) Between the years 1919 and 1924 the Weimar Republic experienced many threats against its new democratic regime, however it could be argued that none of the threats ever truly had the ability or support required to overthrow the new state, therefore rendering the attempts by the political extremists as not that threatening. The Weimar Republic saw the end of the Kaiser’s rule and the start of a new semi presidential and representative democratic ruling. Even dating back to the formation of Germany in 1870, the foundation of German Politics and power has always lain with the elites and middle class of the population. With the new Weimar Republic these elites were supposed to lose their power and control due to the democratic regime, however this did not actually happen. Therefore any political extremists that threatened the system, and in turn threatened the elite’s power, were dealt with in harsh manners. During the trials from the 1920 Putch over seven hundred people went to trial however only one person was convicted and given five years in prison. Since the Putch would have been an act of treason, and under German law, the punishment should have been death, however the fact there was so little convictions and such lenient punishments suggests just how strong the elite’s power still was and how strong the Weimar Republic would have been with the elite’s power backing it, but they would only do this as long as things were benefiting them. The Kapp- Là ¼ttwitz Putch of 1920 did lead to an exposure of the army’s reluctance to support the Weimar Republic due to the fact the army was ordered to act by Noske, the Defence Minister, however the leaders of the military refused to get involved and instead remained neutral. This therefore would have planted a seed of doubt into people’s minds as to how good the Republic would be as not even the army were going to protect it, which then would lead some people to feel unprotected and vulnerable, and  could have led to people turning against the democratic system and instead turning back to the old ways of running the country. Yet, this was not the case therefore suggesting that the Kapp- Là ¼ttwitz Putch did not pose as being that significant of a threat. The Munich Beer Hall Putch could be argued as being doomed from the start and therefore never truly being a serious threat. From the beginning and throughout it never had the support of the German people, with only a small number of people supporting their cause. Seeckt also used his powers to command the army to resist the Putch and with the combination of the Bavarian Police and the army the Putch was crushed easily with minimal deaths. However, in the end Hitler was arrested on charges of treason (again meaning the punishment under German law should have been death) and he only received a five year prison sentence yet he was released after just nine months. This again showed that the political power was with the elites and that the Weimar Republic was not as strong as first thought, yet the public were still willing to keep the democratic state in place and give it a chance to work. Therefore it could be argued that as long as people had a belief in the Weimar Republic and were willing to support it then any attempts by political extremists would never have been that successful and therefore they were never truly much of a threat. In conclusion, although the Weimar Republic did indeed experience many threats from political extremists, with some seemingly serious threats against it which showed the many flaws in the system such as the power of the elites and the army’s standing in the new regime, yet none of the attempts had enough public support backing them to have a serious impact. They just didn’t have enough public support as people, especially of the working classes, believed in their new democratic system, and wanted to give it enough time to start to evoke changes that would benefit them in the long run. Therefore the attempts could not have had enough of an impact to name them as being serious threats against their new democratic state.

Refuge Camps :: essays research papers

â€Å"Refuge Camps†   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  There is a foreboding and ongoing crisis facing several third world countries today. This crisis is the rising amount of famine and health ailments that affect hundreds of thousands of individuals that face malnutrition, poverty, and several other serious problems that you will find in developing countries. Countless diseases plague today’s world and the people who are most vulnerable to these diseases are also the ones that need the most help. Despite the lack of funds and limited aid available to these people, there is hope. A group by the name of Doctors Without Borders is a non-profit organization that provides free health care in Refugee camps to the great amount of need and helpless individuals that populate our world. Doctors Without Borders (DWB) is comprised of fully qualified and credentialed medical doctors from around the world. They travel internationally educating broad audiences by offering seminars and lectures based on their goal and purpose. The organization is also composed of 2,000 volunteers who are enrolled and sent out annually throughout the world. The organization's main goal is to aid the several million refugees that reside in numerous developing countries. These refugees flee from their countries due to natural disasters, extreme poverty and persecution that infects their home countries. DWB helps these individuals by setting up camps and shelters where they can seek refuge. The camps that DWB setup provide everything needed for survival. They provide clean water and healthy food for all the refugees. Since water and food is limited at the camps, refugees are only provided with minimal supplies for survival. There is a medical station, where they provide all the necessary vaccines and treatments for most illnesses and diseases. The refugees are given identification cards, which they need to show in order to get food and water. The camps are well organized and all the members work together to provide an adequate living environment These are many dangerous diseases that infect third world countries and Refugee camps. Two of these are cholera and malaria. Cholera is a very dangerous disease that affects a lot of the refugees. Cholera is very contagious and about 50% of people infected with the bacteria die. In underdeveloped countries like Africa, diseases are everywhere. Most cholera deaths occur due to poor sanitation. In one incident, in Rwanda, there was an estimated 1000 deaths per day caused by cholera. If caught in time it can be cured.

Effectiveness of Time and Financial Management Essay

The researchers chose 7 different scholars to conduct a survey about the chosen topic. Most of the respondents came from student assistant’s category and the others came from the category of academic scholars. These scholars were given scholarships from Ozanam Study Grant Program and Megaworld Foundation. On the range of their ages, 17-22 years old were the students who were given an opportunity they wanted to have. The scholars being interviewed have a daily allowance of more or less 150 pesos. On the Graph 1.1 being shown below are some of the expenses of the following students. Graph 1.1 A little number of respondents said that they stay in boarding houses that cost them Php 1,600 to Php 1,700. Literally, the cost was being solved by their parents. 3 out of 7 students said that both of their parents are self-employed. 1 respondent said that his/her parents run a business and another corresponds to unemployed parents. The rest of the students match up on other answers like their father/mother neither is an overseas Filipino worker, a tricycle driver, a plain housewife nor was deceased. Researchers proceed to the monthly income of their parents in able to measure the financial background of each and every respondent. Graph 1.2 illustrates the possible monthly income of the parents of these learners. Graph 1.2 As you can see, there is an equality of 14,000 and lower and 15,000-20,000 income. It is based on the survey being conducted by the researchers and from the occupation of their parents. On the part of their financial management, they spent the biggest part of their allowance for their food (50%) followed by their transportation and some other expenses. This shows that food is very important especially for the scholars like them. Food is an essential and they must not ignore because of the responsibilities they have in the university. The primary reason of the pupils asked in preferring themselves in being a scholar of Adamson University is that because they wanted to help their parents in decreasing the expenses. In this reason, an individual can determine that financial or money matters are the first basis in order for them to have financial management. Other reasons are for them to gain independency. The effectiveness of financial management is measured by proper usage of money and thinking a creative way of using up money. The researchers also find ways on evaluating time supervision of scholars. Because of a more number of student assistants being interviewed, most of their time is allotted on their duties. Here is Graph 1.3 that shows how long an ordinary scholar uses his /her time in the university. Graph 1.3 Take a look of the graph that has been illustrated by the researchers. Student D and F are academic scholars. According to the information gathered from the survey, these students are academic scholars. As academic scholars, their worlds are focused on studying. They usually spend time in resting, studying and even have a time for leisure. On the other hand, the remaining students (A, B , C and E) make use of their time in duties and offices. Equalizing time in each activity of a student like them is not easy to do. Like on the Graph 1.3, student assistants are divided in different opinions. Some of them were able to balance their time and others cannot. Same answer was derived by academic scholars. However, they also answered it depends on the situation. Situations are unpredictable and make equalization of time in different planned activities. Somehow, all of them have a time for rest and have a break after long hours from school. Lastly, as a scholar, grade is the most important or basis in acquiring scholarships. Grades of these scholars are not affected by activities being done in school. Therefore, these learners have a good strategic measures in managing their time and studies. Conclusion Based on the presented and interpreted data above, the following conclusions were drawn: 1. That most of the scholars spend their money more on food for it is an essential need. 2. That most of the scholars wanted to help their parents to reduce the number of expenses. 3. That most of the scholars allot their time to school by doing different duties but assures that grades of them will not be affected.

Should Governments Further Fund Public Transportation - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 6 Words: 1774 Downloads: 8 Date added: 2019/08/12 Category Politics Essay Level High school Tags: Government Essay Did you like this example? Today, it is commonly assumed that every person with a drivers license owns a personal vehicle. However, in the United States alone, public transportation is used 35 million times on a common weekday (Facts). In China, there are near 170 million privately owned vehicles (Chinas), compared to their population of over 1.3 billion. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Should Governments Further Fund Public Transportation?" essay for you Create order The term public transportation can refer to a bus, train, subway, ferry, or other means, that commonly involve a fare (Public). It is used more often than many assume and can be considered vital in the lives of those without their own form of transport.   Public transportation can work wonders for the economy. It provides careers, both directly and indirectly, at approximately 1.1 million jobs per year in the United States (Transit). It provides careers in the form of bus drivers, technicians, and coordinators. Also, it provides transportation to the workplaces for those who do not have access to their own car. The downside of taking a bus rather than a car is that it may limit the work schedules of these people. This is due to the time tables of the transportation. Often, there is also debate in whether public transportation is entirely safe, due to the locations of the stations, or the character of those using the transit or conducting the transport. This is where the controversy arises.   The annual spending on public transportation in 2014 was $416 billion in the United States (Facts), and 2.5 billion British pounds in the UK (Public Sector), or near $3.5 billion. Although these figures are already considerable, it can be argued that the government should increase funding. This would increase the quality of public transportation. To address this topic, the benefits and draw-backs of public transportation must be analyzed to informatively decide on whether the figure that is spent on public transportation is too much or too little.  Ã‚   Today, the environment is a growing concern in ways such as global warming or pollution, but many may argue that there is little being done to prevent the deterioration of the Earth. 28% of greenhouse gas emissions come from transportation in Canada (Greenhouse), and 14% globally (Global). In increasing funding for public transportation, it will decrease the use of individual vehicles, thus limiting the use of gasoline and the emissions coming from the cars. On average, heavy rail transit, such as trams or trains produce almost 80% less gas emissions than single occupancy vehicles (Transit). If governments we re to increase the use of public transportation, air pollution could decrease at an exponential rate. An example of how transportation can affect the air is in China, where some of the worst traffic occurs, as a traffic jam once lasted ten days long. This is one direct cause of the air pollution in China, as it is home to sixteen of the dirtiest cities on the globe (Air).   Not only would the environment benefit from the increase in public transport funding, but the economy as well. According to the American Public Transport Association, a nonprofit organization that promotes public transportation, every $1 used for public transport funding results in $4 back into the economy (Facts). When individual vehicles are not being bought as often and less money is being spent on gas, more money can be used instead on substantial infrastructure for communities, such as roads, utilities, or education (Transit). The APTA is a credible source as it has represented public transportation for over one hundred years. The members of the organization all specialize in transportation, whether it be building it or conducting it.   Providing more funding for public transportation would increase the quality of the transit and reduce any negative connotation that may be associated with the thought of taking the bus or a train, as some may associate public transport with low er income areas. More people would be using it to commute to work, school, or home, and, subsequently, traffic congestion would be reduced. Minimizing traffic would lower the stress of those on the road as traffic is typically a high-tension situation, decrease the effect of cars on the environment, and lessen the amount spent on gasoline per person, which was $1,560 per year in 2017 in the United States (DiLallo).   The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is 4.2% (How). With public transport more readily available, the unemployment rate could drop, which is typically desirable in many countries. If public transportation is further funded, the bus or train schedules would not have to be as restricted as they may be now, and public transit could further provide careers for hundreds of millions of people worldwide, whether it be a bus driver, a train conductor, or provide a shuttle to and from a workplace.   Despite common belief, public transportation frees up time for those using it. Rather than having to drive to and from work or school, someone else is driving for them, and therefore provides them excess time f or other activities, such as studying or reading, while on the go. Not only does it free up time, but it also is linked to a healthier lifestyle, as people typically walk to and from their homes to bus stops or train stations. As well as this, public transportation may be safer than individually driving, as transit operators must go through training to be able to control the vehicle in which people may be taking. In the United States, bus accidents only account for .01% of transport related crashes compared to nearly three-quarters of highway fatalities resulting from single-vehicles (Kille). Public transportation does a substantial amount of good and provides safe and effective means of travel.   In opposition to further funding public transportation, it could be argued that it would decrease the number of careers in a country. The number of traffic police, car manufacturers, and car salesmen could decrease as the need for individual cars would decrease. Many people worldwide would be out a job. With this, there is question to whether the increase in public transportation will help the economy or hurt it instead. Also, there is some question to if public transportation should become free, which could be detrimental to the economy if it were further funded. More money would be used to better the transportation, but there would be no direct economic returns.   The use of public transportation can increase the time that the average person must wait for commuting. The average time spent waiting on transportation in Great Britain is almost 43 minutes a month, where public transportation is more prevalent than it is in most countries (Britons). Although they would be using this time for other activities, it could be spent at work or home instead.   If public transportation were to be further funded, the money must come from somewhere. This funding would have to come from increasing taxes or pulling funding from another cause, such as education or health care. If the money were to be coming from taxes of the people, it could cause an uproar from the public as those who do not need to use public transport will be forced to pay for it. The taxes that would be increased would include sales tax, property taxes, or gas taxes according to Christopher MacKechnie. If the funding was pulled from other programs, it could also be a cause of conflict, as, again, the taxpayers money would be going towards public transportation rather than being spent on something that the entire population could make use of. MacKechnie was a bus driver for ten years while completing his college degree. He later worked in an authoritative position at a major public transportation company in Los Angeles, which therefore verifies his credibility in the matter.   Further funding public transportation could be argued as unnecessary by many people. Public transport is often seen as unsanitary and even dangerous. Further funding it may help with these problems, but they would not be entirely eliminated and the negative social stigma surrounding public transportation would most likely remain as funding could not alter opinions immediately, if ever. This means that, even if transportation were to be renovated, it is not guaranteed that it would have an increased use. The crimes committed on public transportation include, but are not limited to, theft, rape, or even homicide. When improving public transportation, it betters the infrastructure itself, but it cannot regulate criminals that may take the bus, therefore still limiting the amount of people using the transportation due to the fear that may be associated.   Commuting shorter distances through walking or cycling is much healthier than using public transportation. Typically, those that use private cars or public transportation tend to struggle with stress, exhaustion, and sleep quality over those who commute with physical exercise. (Pag e). If public transportation is not being used by those who are commuting shorter distance, that demonstrates that further funding the transport would be unnecessary to a great majority of people, and therefore make a very little positive impact on society.   After considering both sides of this issue, I feel that governments worldwide should increase their funding for public transportation. It is beneficial in many ways economically and environmentally through providing careers and reducing traffic congestion. The argument opposing further funding can be used in favor of both sides of the issue. Many of the points are theoretical, such as increase in funding may not increase use. Also, the negative views that are associated around public transportation are not widespread, therefor discarding this point. The careers that could be provided greatly outweigh those that would be taken away. The traffic police may slightly decline, but it will not be a dramatic change for the career, as private cars will still be popular; public transportation will just be more commonly used. After analyzing these points, it can be concluded that no dramatic negative changes would occur if public transportation would be further funded. The points presented in support of further funding are based on facts, such as the economic benefit in the fact ?every $1 used in funding results in $4 back into the economy. The environment is one thing that a great majority of people agree should be maintained and taken care of. Public transportation can play a role in the bettering of the environment, further encouraging the need for further funding and encouragement for public transport.   If I were to further my research, I would learn more about the extent that public transportation can decrease gas emissions. Clearly public transportation would decrease the emissions, but it would be interesting t o understand how far it would be beneficial and how. Also, it would be interesting to research the extent that traffic congestion would be reduce and what positive long-term effects that it would have

IMPACT OF LOCAL OIL PRICES ON THE AUTOMOBILE SALES Acknowledgements - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 11 Words: 3404 Downloads: 1 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Statistics Essay Did you like this example? Abstract The objective of this research is to study and understand the relation between the oil prices and the sales of automobiles. The escalation in the petroleum prices plays a major role in the automobile industry worldwide. When the price of oil increases, it evidently alarms the automobile industry because the auto companies are in the competition with one another to fulfill the new demands for more fuel efficient consumer mindful at condensed price. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "IMPACT OF LOCAL OIL PRICES ON THE AUTOMOBILE SALES Acknowledgements" essay for you Create order Furthermore, rise in the petroleum prices also impacts the kind of means of transportation demanded by the buyer and the way those vehicle motors are designed. However after studying the oil price impact on Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s automobile industry sales we have concluded that the relationship of oil prices and auto sales does not exists in Pakistan. Contents Acknowledgements II Abstract III Contents IV 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on Automobile Sales: 1 Background of Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Automobile industry 4 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW 5 4.0 RESEARCH METHOD 14 5.0 HYPOTHESIS TESTING 15 5.1 INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT VARIABLE 15 5.1.1 Independent Variable à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" domestic oil prices 15 5.1.2 Dependent Variable à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Auto mobile Sales 16 6.0 DATA ANALYSIS: 17 7.0 CONCLUSION IMPLICATIONS 19 8.0 REFERENCES 20 List of Tables: Table 6.1 ANOVA and level of Significance 18 Table 6.2: Regression Statistics of the tested variables 18 1.0 INTRODUCTION The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on Automobile Sales: Impact of oil in daily life is quite evident. Oil is considered as a strategic energy for economic time line. The price of oil has an effect on cost of production in diversified ways such as with the increase in oil prices, there is an increase in the costs of transportation of export, import and goods for local expenditure. Apart from this there is also an upward slope in rates of air, road, rail and sea transportation with the rise in the price petroleum. Oil endows with 97% of the transportation fuels that facilitates in running the trucks cars and other automobiles in the countryà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s highway. Thus, when the price of the oil increases, it evidently alarms the automobile industry because the auto-companies are in competition with one another to fulfill the new demands for more fuel proficient consumer mindful at condensed price. There are no reservations that profit margin of the companies are affected by this. Furthermore, rise in oil price also affects the kind of means of transportation demanded by the buyer and the way those vehicle motors are designed. The escalation in the petroleum prices plays a major part in the automotive industry. à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“The world consumes over 82 million barrels of oil per day (BPD), with the united states taking roughly 20 million BPDà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬?1. Petroleum is one of the most essential contributions in a nations economy and its price has extensive economic and social impacts. Various researches illustrate that the price of petroleum in Pakistan is considerably high either with or without involving per capita income and it needs to be leveled downwards in order to guarantee competitiveness of Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s exports and lessen the burden on the buying competence of the nation. Nevertheless, this cannot be a simple task as Pakistan heavily depends upon imported oil in order to fulfill its petroleum necessity and the development surcharges and the import revenues compose a major sector of the Government income. However, a feasible and reasonable solution to trim down oil price is needed keeping in sight the revenue making facet and the prevailing global prices of crude oil. The major reason of escalated oil prices is linked with the demand of oil and the complication in oil refineries. Petroleum is used usually for two reasons: Firstly, in the gasoline production and secondly in the production of tires. In the US, during the last few years the prices of gasoline have risen up considerably reaching on an average over $ 3.00/gallon (EIA-Energy Information Administration).Oil is considered as the main element in the tires production. With the increase in the oil prices, the cost and expenditure in making the tires escalates, the cost to heat up or cool the manufacturing plant where tires are produced increases, and eventually escalates the expenditure of shipping the tires to further destinations. Because of the rise in the price of petroleum, the tire makers are also increasing the price of tires. The automobile sector is affected by both, tire production and gasoline prices as the profit margins are affected by the rise in oil prices and tire production prices. The automobile industry catastrophe, currently worldwide phenomena, started during 2008-H2. The automotive sector is going through a crisis condition in US and Canada because of the Automobile products Trade Agreement. Nevertheless, all auto makers worldwide, especially in Japan and Europe are also facing the same crisis. The first fragile connection in the auto sector was the record high petroleum prices during 2008 which caused global oil crisis and made fuel costs and expenditures unreasonable, causing buyers to opt for smaller cars rather than larger SUVs (sports utility vehicles) and the pick up trucks. Background of Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Automobile industry The global oil crisis has affected Pakistan economy severely. Automobile sector has been greatly impacted by the oil price shocks. There had been consistency in the Gross Profit Margin of Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Automobile industry. It raised from FY01 (6.83) to FY03 (13.73).Then had a downward slope for two consecutive years to 12.17 (FY05), then remained stable for two more consecutive years (FY05 FY07).Since FY07 there has been a constant downward slope, reaching 6.14 (FY09) the diminishing Profit margin was because of the ever escalated cost of goods sold. The risen up cost is primarily due to the global oil price shocks and the high depreciation value of Rupee. The escalated costs were also linked to the high inflation rate during FY09. 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW Escalated oil prices have been accountable for periods of extreme inflation, recessions, and lower productivity and reduced economic growth. For the Automobile manufacturers the fuel price debate is nothing new. Due to predefined end of petroleum resources, the automakers have come up with various strategies to avert any sudden need for action. However till now, no one has clearly defined the oil supply definitive end. Kiseol Lee and Shawn Ni analyzed the effects of oil price shocks on demand and supply in automobile industry depicting the effect of oil price shocks mainly reducing demand. They suggested that oil price shocks influence economic activities. The first OPEC oil embargo in early 1970s has led to the start of debate over the oil shocks and its Macroeconomic effects. The most comprehensively surveyed theories on the direct consequence of oil price shocks incorporates thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬? an input-cost effect, that higher energy cost lowers usage of oil which in turn lowers productivity of capital and labor; and an income effect, that higher cost of imported oil reduces disposable income of U.S. householdsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬?. (K.Lee, 2002) According to an editorial in 1973-1974 oil crises: Automobile sales, especially for standard and medium-sized cars, began diminishing almost with the first realization that the energy crisis is reality. The trade-in value of big gas-guzzlers toppled unmercifully and some dealers were threatening not to take them in trade at all. Gasoline mileage, not size and comfort suddenly became the paramount concern for the consumer. (Wards Auto World) K.Lee contrasted to the situation in the petroleum refinery and industrial chemical industries which were bothered by the escalated cost of fuel, research in trade papers proposed considerable indications that the automotive industry distraught by the two fuel price shocks mainly due to the demand for larger vehicles stabbed. The effects of oil price hikes for nearly all other industries are less severe and intricate. The writings in trade journals of rubber, metals and other machinery industries often cited that the major factor of soggy economical activity is the dejected and depressed automotive market, however the highlighted that various sectors of these industries have also gained benefit from augmented economic activity in energy exploration and protection.(K Lee ,2002) The steel sector was adversely affected by the hunch in automotive sales. According to the Wardà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Auto World, Chemical week and Industry Week magazines, the oil prices crunches lowered the demand for the metals by their effect on automobiles, housing and consumer durables. Globally, the auto mobile assemblers are facing financial crisis at their worst which is eventually leading to recession. In the same way , as Pakistan à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"s Auto Market is an export driven industry which attracts both foreign and locals investments, therefore is facing decreasing sales and production level and depicting a depressing future. Because of the present critical situation prevailing in the automobile sector, many companies are on the threshold of economic failure and bankruptcy. K Lee discussed that after an oil price shock, demand for vehicles is destabilized in view of the fact that a prospective new car holder may go for other ways of transportation to save the operating expenditure of vehicles, or delay buying a new car because ambiguity about future energy prices makes it difficult to come to a decision which type of automobile to purchase. Increase in Oil price also alters the composition of the automobile demand. As compared to the small-size cars, the demand for full-size cars is much more destabilized. The U.S. auto makers suffered more ruthlessly from rising and falling oil price because they manufacture inconsistently more full-size cars than their overseas competitors. Hamilton in 1988 mentioned in his writings that the oil crisis stimulate recessions primarily because a sharp increase in oil price escalates ambiguity and elevates operating costs and expenditures of several durable goods, which diminishes demand for durables, venture and investments. (Hamilton 1988, 1999). Brad M. Barber, Reid W. Click, Masako N. Darrough analyzed and empirically estimated the degree to which exchange rate and oil price alterations have contributed to this market swing. Increase in oil prices diminishes the amount of vehicles sold by the US auto makers, but conversely to the common idea, had minor effect on the Japanese auto mobile makers .That oil price effect reported 6.5 percent of the variance of alteration in monthly sales volume for US automobile manufacturers. They also discussed that productions costs are affected by oil prices hikes. For their research they used VAR to highlight the environmental issues that influence the cost of manufacturing and demand in the automobile industry. They clearly account for the effect of oil prices and exchange rates on manufacturing costs and the impact of oil prices and income on the demand for vehicles. Their outcomes suggested that the all the considered macroeconomic variables affected sales volumes as forecasted by the model they used. With reference to oil prices, escalated oil prices have certainly led to turn down in sales by the U.S automobile manufactures. Hamilton proposed that financial slumps tend to emerge after oil price trends. In particular, the worldwide inflationary strains of 2008 became rigorous with the spikes up in fuel prices shocks in the global financial system including Pakistan. Fuel prices with respect to domestic currency emphasized the fact that the delivering channels of global shocks via exchange rates variations put down major effects on the domestic inflation within the economy. According to Hamilton, the variations in oil prices in local currency are inflated and unpredictable in contrast to the variations in prices of oil in dollar terms particularly in 1999 and onwards. This underlines the details that the impacts of external oil price shocks have considerable effect upon local inflation via exchange rate variations in the economy (Hamilton, 2005). Bresnahan and Ramey discussed that the OPEC oil price shock in US during 1973 had major impact on the U.S auto mobile industry. It amplified the demand for smaller, fuel efficient cars and at the same time condensed the demand for larger cars. As the funds, financial stock and labor force were basically bound for the manufacturing and production of larger cars, therefore the U.S automotive companies were inadequate to respond to this oil price shock. As a result, capacity consumption, utilization and the output cut down during the period of Oil price shock. Only few plants were equipped to produce the small cars, manufacturing and operating at their peak capacity. (Bresnahan and Ramey ,1993). Steven J. Davis, John Haltiwanger studied the impact of oil price shocks on the creation and devastation of American automobile manufacturing employment from 1972 to 1988. The oil price shock unfavorably had an effect on the proximity between the preferred and actual characteristics of factor contributed in the automobile industry along different dimensions. Firstly, a large amount of the physical resources in the auto industry was devoted to the manufacture of larger cars instead of the smaller ones. Secondly, the American automobile labor had built up proficiency that was skilled and specialized in the manufacture and production of particular car models, and these were likely to be larger vehicle models. In Pakistan also the increase in oil prices had impact on many enterprises. Many different small to medium Automobile companies in the manufacturing sector are facing a severe threat of downsizing, closures, layoffs and limited production cuts due to an abrupt rise in their cost and expenditures of doing manufacturing and a significant reduction in their car sales. According to the owners of different small automakers, the sales of different auto parts have plunged downwards to 30%-in proportion to the reduction in the car sales. The overall margins have also dropped down. With reference to the statistics of Pakistan Automotive Manufactures Association, car sales during the period of 2008-09 positioned at 82,844 units, which were declined by 48% from 164,650 units in the 2007-08. According to Birol and Keppler (2007) the association between mobility, calculated as time spent in movement, and economic output is more stable than the relationship between output and fuel utilization, partly due to increased possibilities of substitution between the latter. This examination bears a significant policy lesson: relative price changes to decrease energy consumption per unit of output are most effective where possibilities for substitution are highest. (Birol, Keppler, 2007) Storchmann (2005) employed a pooled model to calculate approximate average fuel utilization using various explanatory variables such as, population, private income, urbanization rates, density, oil prices and automobile expenditures. The sales of automobile sector is affected by all these variables. Thomas Klier and Joshua Linn estimated the impact of the price of gasoline on the demand for fuel efficient vehicles. They institute the idea that gasoline prices considerably influence the new auto market and the price escalations explained almost half of the down turn in market share of U.S auto firms. The outcomes suggested that consumer demand reacts when the price of gasoline increases or rise up during 1970à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s and near the beginning of 1980à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s. During stable prices in the middle period, the sales had a negligible effect by the prices of gasoline; their results were steady with casual observation of the new auto market. Hamilton (1988) used a model called sectoral shifts that elucidated how an oil price slog might lower real GDP. The primary propagation method in this model is that an oil price escalation will lower consumer buying power of energy-using commodities such as automobiles. Goldberg (1998) determined the rebound effect by means of the Consumer Expenditure Survey for the years between 1984-1990, as an ingredient of a bigger equation system that also forecast the effect of oil on automobile sales and prices. Lutz Kilian in 2007 used Regression analysis to discuss that Automobile purchases were by far the most responsive expenditure item when the oil prices fluctuates. Purchase of other durables goods for instance appliances or furniture; by contrast, are far less responsive to energy price swings. Spending on public transportation and on food at home are few of the expenditure items that privileged from unexpected elevated energy prices. There will be a demand side impact of oil price increases. When oil prices rise, consumers are likely to delay or postpone their purchasing durables such as automobiles. This demand side impact leads to relative increase in inventories to sales and then decline industrial production. 4.0 RESEARCH METHOD The objective of this study is to determine the impact of local oil prices on Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Automobile sales. The research is exploratory in nature and relied on secondary research and data collection, reviewing available literature and data. The sample data consists of five years monthly oil prices; taken from OGRA (Oil and Gas regulatory authority), and five years monthly auto sales; taken from PAMA (Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association.) An extensive secondary data analysis was done where the impact of oil prices were observed and the related research were also examined to find out the linkages of the oil prices with the auto sales, data analysis was done through Ms-excel. The statistical tool used is regression and correlation. The tables were also generated through Ms-Excel 2007 version. 5.0 HYPOTHESIS TESTING The purpose of this research is to find the relationship between Local oil prices and the Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s auto industry sales. Globally, researchers have observed that oil plays a major role in impacting the Automobile industry sales. In our research we are also testing the following hypothesis. H1: The local oil prices have a direct impact on Automobile sales in Pakistan. 5.1 INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT VARIABLE 5.1.1 Independent Variable à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" domestic oil prices In Pakistan, the oil prices passed through to domestic consumers is determined by Oil and Gas regulatory authority (OGRA) and although the oil price in international oil market fluctuates on a daily basis, in Pakistan the pass through is carried out after every 15 days. The international oil prices impact almost every sector of the country from transportation to the Agriculture. Hence oil is the backbone of every sector of the economy and plays an important role in the development of any economy. 5.1.2 Dependent Variable à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Auto mobile Sales Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s automobile sales were taken from PAMA which is a registered Pakistan Automobiles Association company. The global oil crisis has affected Pakistan economy severely. Automobile sector has been greatly impacted by the oil price shocks. 6.0 DATA ANALYSIS: The data analysis was done through Ms-Excel 2007, Correlation and Regression analysis was done to find out the relationship between the two variables. The monthly local oil prices were compared with the monthly automobile sales. The regression Analysis was done to determine if escalation in oil prices affects the sales of automobile industry or not, to find out this the following equation has been used Y = a + bx Here Y= auto sales And X= oil prices Sales = f (oil price) S=16,150.92-32.03(oil price) Negative sign of X intercept shows that the result is inline with the literature review i.e. with the increase in oil prices, automobile sales is declining. However the relationship is insignificant because P value is 0.51 (greater that 0.05).Therefore, the research hypothesis has been rejected and there is no relationship between oil prices and sales of auto industry. Table 6.1 ANOVA and level of Significance ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1.00 7,521,403.95 7,521,403.95 0.44 0.51 Residual 55.00 939,576,283.03 17,083,205.15 Total 56.00 947,097,686.98 Table 6.2: Regression Statistics of the tested variables Multiple R 0.09 R Square 0.01 Adjusted R Square (0.01) Multiple R is 0.09 which means the correlation between the two variables is negligible. R square is also 1% which also indicates negligible effect of oil on the auto sales .Y intercept signifies that if oil price is 0, still the auto sales will be 16,150.92 units. Whereas, the slope indicates that with the increase in oil prices, the auto sales will decrease with 32.03 units. Log of both the variables was tested in order to find out the linearity, but no such relationship exists between the two variables. 7.0 CONCLUSION IMPLICATIONS The purpose of this study is to find out the effect of local oil prices on automobile sales in Pakistan. After conducting this research the results indicates that there is no significant impact on the Auto sales when the oil price changes. The escalation in the petroleum prices plays a major role in the automobile industry worldwide. When the price of oil increases, it evidently alarms the automobile industry because the auto companies are in the competition with one another to fulfill the new demands for more fuel efficient consumer mindful at condensed price. Furthermore, rise in the petroleum prices also impacts the kind of means of transportation demanded by the buyer and the way those vehicle motors are designed. However after studying the oil price impact on Pakistanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s automobile industry sales the research concluded that the relationship of oil prices and auto sales does not exists in Pakistan. The result shows that the correlation between the two variables is very minor and the significance value F indicated that there is no linear relationship between the two variables.